Reducing deaths yielded fewer kids!

Click to see Gapminder World showing number of children per women (vertical) and child mortality (horizontally) for the countries of the world in 1960. (each bubble=one country). Back in 1960 there was a developing world with many children and high child mortality!

Click Play and watch how child mortality falls and then how also number of children falls

Today most countries are down in the small family low child mortality corner! And therefore the “Peak Number of Children” has now been reached, as the countries with less than 2 children per women compensate for the one of seven billion people that still have more than 3 chiuldren per women.

The World has reached Peak Number of Children!


world population continueS to grow, but the number of children in the world has now reached its peak.

In 1960 we were 1 billion children below 15 years of age and we were 35% of the world population.

Now there are 1,9 billion children  in the world, but they are but 27% of world population.

In 2050 there will still be an estimated 1.9 billion kids, but they will be only 20% of world population.

The reason, 40% of world population has less than 2 children per women and thus compensationg for the 18% that get more than 3 children per women.


UN: we will be 9 b 2050 & 10 b 2100

Great day for the curious! UN releases World Population Prospects 2010

No more grouping of countries into developed and developing! Instead countries are grouped based on fertility into low (ex. Vietnam, Iran & Brazil), intermediate (ex Egypt, USA, Bangladesh, South Africa), and high fertility (ex Pakistan, Nigeria, Congo & Bolivia) !

The high-fertility countries (> 3 kids per women) are mainly in Africa and only have 18% of the world population = 1.2 billion people. They are expected to tripple their population to 3,6 billion this century! The Low fertility countries are 40% of world population and will decrease their population and the intermediate are 40% will level of at 2050.

The peak size of the world population, therefore,  depends on how fast peace, school, basic health care, poverty alleviation and family planning will become accessible to all in Africa and a few other countries like Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan.