1 00:00:00,750 --> 00:00:03,436 This is the world in 1959 2 00:00:03,621 --> 00:00:09,238 The size of this bubble represents the number of children born in the world 3 00:00:09,425 --> 00:00:15,789 It was 100 million children born in 1959 4 00:00:16,164 --> 00:00:22,030 On this axis here we can see the death among these children 5 00:00:22,154 --> 00:00:27,897 Child mortality was 150 deaths per 1000 children born 6 00:00:28,083 --> 00:00:34,074 This axis goes from 20 deaths per 1000 to 500 deaths per 1000 7 00:00:34,261 --> 00:00:41,374 This axis down here shows the income per person 8 00:00:41,563 --> 00:00:45,494 It was 3000 dollars per year in 1959 9 00:00:45,618 --> 00:00:49,672 The axis goes from 500 dollars all the way to 30 000 dollars 10 00:00:49,797 --> 00:00:52,231 But the world was obviously very unequal 11 00:00:52,356 --> 00:00:56,226 I will show this by splitting the world bubble into country bubbles 12 00:00:56,352 --> 00:00:57,161 Look 13 00:00:57,285 --> 00:01:00,595 Each bubble is a country 14 00:01:00,782 --> 00:01:03,277 The size is the number of births 15 00:01:03,464 --> 00:01:08,580 I will zoom up to show you what has changed since 16 00:01:08,772 --> 00:01:11,512 The blue ones here are the developing countries 17 00:01:11,699 --> 00:01:15,257 The brown ones here are the industrialized countries 18 00:01:15,459 --> 00:01:21,138 The industrialized countries had higher income and lower child mortality 19 00:01:21,326 --> 00:01:23,091 But what has changed? 20 00:01:23,110 --> 00:01:25,819 I will start the world and you can see 21 00:01:25,843 --> 00:01:29,501 Year by year, how the child mortality is falling 22 00:01:29,686 --> 00:01:32,120 It¡¯s falling, it¡¯s going down 23 00:01:32,244 --> 00:01:33,804 Child mortality is getting lower 24 00:01:33,929 --> 00:01:35,428 Income is increasing 25 00:01:35,553 --> 00:01:40,045 The former developing countries are coming into the circle here 26 00:01:40,233 --> 00:01:42,107 which represents the industrialized countries 27 00:01:42,230 --> 00:01:44,789 The big one there is China, coming all the way down 28 00:01:44,974 --> 00:01:46,973 You have a new pattern in the world 29 00:01:47,158 --> 00:01:53,524 The high income countries had a very high income and very low child mortality 30 00:01:53,650 --> 00:01:57,580 But also some developing countries have reached all the way down here 31 00:01:57,704 --> 00:02:00,450 what I should say ¡°former developing countries¡± 32 00:02:00,577 --> 00:02:04,569 Most countries in the world are in the middle position 33 00:02:04,694 --> 00:02:08,189 Some had very high child mortality and low income 34 00:02:08,315 --> 00:02:13,181 Now how fast did that change take place? 35 00:02:13,304 --> 00:02:16,985 Millennium Development Goal (MDG) NO. 4 36 00:02:17,174 --> 00:02:20,792 is specified by the UN 37 00:02:20,979 --> 00:02:26,035 as a lowering of child mortality with two-thirds in 25 years 38 00:02:26,158 --> 00:02:27,659 That is one generation 39 00:02:27,922 --> 00:02:31,355 But a modern way to measure that is to measure 40 00:02:31,543 --> 00:02:34,911 Average Annual Rate of Reduction 41 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:41,620 This is a way to measure child mortality in the same way as we measure economic growth 42 00:02:41,637 --> 00:02:43,774 in percent change per year 43 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:51,071 The aim is to change child mortality by lowering with 4.3% 44 00:02:51,121 --> 00:02:52,505 More than 4%, we could say 45 00:02:52,507 --> 00:02:59,701 Now let me give you an example. Norway is a very successful country 46 00:02:59,787 --> 00:03:04,069 with very high income and very low child mortality 47 00:03:04,255 --> 00:03:08,188 I will now take Norway backwards into history 48 00:03:08,374 --> 00:03:12,616 Look, Norway flies back within history 49 00:03:12,805 --> 00:03:16,735 and it lands in the year 1900 50 00:03:16,921 --> 00:03:23,037 Norway had a high child mortality ¨C 140 children dying per 1000 born 51 00:03:23,046 --> 00:03:25,904 It was up here 52 00:03:26,093 --> 00:03:31,650 Among countries that have the highest child mortality 53 00:03:31,773 --> 00:03:34,268 Now I will make a very interesting comparison 54 00:03:34,395 --> 00:03:37,077 I will compare Norway with Bangladesh 55 00:03:37,267 --> 00:03:43,567 I have chosen 1990, the year when we started to measure MDG goal 56 00:03:43,691 --> 00:03:46,998 Then Bangladesh had 140 children dying, 57 00:03:47,188 --> 00:03:52,115 exactly the same as Norway had in 1900 58 00:03:52,303 --> 00:03:54,364 That was 90 years difference 59 00:03:54,489 --> 00:03:58,793 I want to know which country will lower the child mortality faster 60 00:03:58,979 --> 00:04:03,036 Norway more than 100 years ago, or Bangladesh 16 years ago? 61 00:04:03,225 --> 00:04:04,348 Here we go! 62 00:04:04,472 --> 00:04:07,592 Bangladesh is reducing in the same speed as Norway 63 00:04:07,716 --> 00:04:09,713 But now Bangladesh is going faster 64 00:04:09,839 --> 00:04:11,834 When we reach 2006, 65 00:04:11,958 --> 00:04:16,390 Bangladesh reduced with 4.7% and achieved the MDG goal rate 66 00:04:16,579 --> 00:04:18,474 and they were faster than Norway 67 00:04:18,499 --> 00:04:20,136 Not to be surprised, actually 68 00:04:20,260 --> 00:04:22,133 Because now they have vaccines, antibiotics 69 00:04:22,147 --> 00:04:24,253 We know more about the importance of breast feeding 70 00:04:24,376 --> 00:04:28,185 So it should be able to reduce faster, and it did 71 00:04:28,308 --> 00:04:30,306 But I will give Norway one more chance 72 00:04:30,433 --> 00:04:36,359 I will compare Norway 1916 with Egypt 1990 73 00:04:36,483 --> 00:04:39,042 The year when MDG goal measurement started 74 00:04:39,168 --> 00:04:44,595 Egypt then had 91 children dying per 1000 75 00:04:45,158 --> 00:04:45,343 Here we start 76 00:04:45,969 --> 00:04:49,024 You can see how they are going down 77 00:04:49,151 --> 00:04:52,334 Egypt is becoming faster and faster in the speed 78 00:04:52,457 --> 00:04:56,078 They are very successful in reduction, actually 5.5% 79 00:04:56,201 --> 00:04:59,133 much faster than MDG goal rates 80 00:04:59,322 --> 00:05:01,944 But Norway in the past could not follow 81 00:05:02,128 --> 00:05:03,878 The final chance for Norway 82 00:05:04,063 --> 00:05:07,807 we will compare Norway 1932 83 00:05:07,932 --> 00:05:11,739 Norway had the same child mortality as Brazil had in 1990 84 00:05:11,863 --> 00:05:13,236 Here we go 85 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:16,231 Brazil is fast 86 00:05:16,256 --> 00:05:18,542 Norway goes into the 2nd World War 87 00:05:18,664 --> 00:05:20,038 That was a difficult period 88 00:05:20,225 --> 00:05:23,845 They haven¡¯t had any chance to go as fast in that period 89 00:05:23,970 --> 00:05:26,091 as Brazil did in the last 16 years 90 00:05:26,216 --> 00:05:30,396 Brazil reaches amazingly 6.3% 91 00:05:30,521 --> 00:05:33,019 much faster than MDG goal rate 92 00:05:33,204 --> 00:05:35,325 This tells us in practice, 93 00:05:35,453 --> 00:05:38,199 MDG goal can be achieved! 94 00:05:38,384 --> 00:05:41,004 Now let¡¯s look how Norway will continue 95 00:05:41,193 --> 00:05:46,560 Norway was indeed in history very successful 96 00:05:46,745 --> 00:05:53,547 But it reached down to its present position by a reduction of 3.3% per year 97 00:05:53,734 --> 00:05:57,105 About the other countries of the world 98 00:05:57,292 --> 00:06:01,534 These green ones, they have achieved MDG goal 99 00:06:01,659 --> 00:06:04,656 exactly as Bangladesh, Egypt and Brazil 100 00:06:04,841 --> 00:06:08,023 or they are very well on the way to achieve that 101 00:06:08,048 --> 00:06:10,459 because we will continue to measure after 2006 102 00:06:10,584 --> 00:06:12,081 The yellow ones here 103 00:06:12,268 --> 00:06:16,821 The yellow ones are countries which have gone in Norway¡¯s speed 104 00:06:16,947 --> 00:06:18,570 They have reduced child mortality 105 00:06:18,696 --> 00:06:22,689 but not really as fast as the target set by UN 106 00:06:22,877 --> 00:06:25,308 2, 3%, or 4% perhaps 107 00:06:25,434 --> 00:06:29,740 Our concerns are the red countries 108 00:06:29,928 --> 00:06:36,667 Look, the red countries up here have high child mortality and almost no reduction 109 00:06:36,790 --> 00:06:39,454 They reduced very little or not at all 110 00:06:39,462 --> 00:06:41,612 The main concern for me is that 111 00:06:41,636 --> 00:06:47,212 these countries have the lowest income and highest child mortality 112 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:50,020 It means that the country with the highest child mortality 113 00:06:50,144 --> 00:06:53,201 are those which also have the slowest reduction 114 00:06:53,325 --> 00:06:55,822 That is a really serious concern 115 00:06:55,847 --> 00:07:00,564 We must make vaccines and treatment reach those in greatest need 116 00:07:00,689 --> 00:07:03,999 Now there is a good news 117 00:07:04,122 --> 00:07:05,183 Look at this country 118 00:07:05,372 --> 00:07:06,931 Tanzania 119 00:07:07,118 --> 00:07:10,175 According to the measurement from 1990 120 00:07:10,364 --> 00:07:12,298 It has insufficient reduction 121 00:07:12,484 --> 00:07:15,043 But I will show you a more detailed study 122 00:07:15,229 --> 00:07:19,908 This is published in the Lancet 123 00:07:20,035 --> 00:07:22,842 The main medical journal in April this year 124 00:07:23,030 --> 00:07:27,568 It shows on this axis the years from 1990 (to 2005) 125 00:07:27,584 --> 00:07:29,957 Here it shows child mortality 126 00:07:30,145 --> 00:07:36,821 Tanzania indeed during the first 9 years of MDG goal measurement 127 00:07:37,006 --> 00:07:39,690 It did not reduce at all, it was a red country 128 00:07:39,877 --> 00:07:41,376 But what has happened is this 129 00:07:41,562 --> 00:07:44,185 Now they have a faster reduction 130 00:07:44,431 --> 00:07:47,366 The researchers that did this careful study 131 00:07:47,489 --> 00:07:50,234 Tanzanian researchers together with international researchers 132 00:07:50,423 --> 00:07:52,546 They were careful, they said, 133 00:07:52,669 --> 00:07:53,979 this was a short period, 134 00:07:54,166 --> 00:07:56,102 and there is an uncertainty range 135 00:07:56,288 --> 00:07:59,597 These little lines show the uncertainty range 136 00:07:59,846 --> 00:08:02,904 But they said, it¡¯s highly probable, 137 00:08:03,030 --> 00:08:04,401 because at the same time, 138 00:08:04,418 --> 00:08:06,149 certain action were taken. 139 00:08:06,337 --> 00:08:07,773 We have marked them here. 140 00:08:07,957 --> 00:08:12,101 Tanzanian government doubled the health budget 141 00:08:12,126 --> 00:08:14,009 Tanzania has an economic growth now 142 00:08:14,199 --> 00:08:19,813 The AID organisation provided vaccines and immunizations 143 00:08:19,938 --> 00:08:22,748 through an international coordinated effort 144 00:08:22,948 --> 00:08:27,382 And bed nets were provided that protects the children against malaria death 145 00:08:27,506 --> 00:08:35,117 So we have good reasons to believe that Tanzania now actually is a country on track to MDG goal 146 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:38,689 After a period of 9 years no reduction. Good news! 147 00:08:38,941 --> 00:08:41,062 I have a final graph 148 00:08:41,248 --> 00:08:44,994 The total number of children who die in the world 149 00:08:45,180 --> 00:08:48,425 We actually know this estimate fairly well 150 00:08:48,550 --> 00:08:52,007 We know that in 1970 151 00:08:52,036 --> 00:08:54,418 There was more than 15 million children dying 152 00:08:54,617 --> 00:09:01,297 This has declined so that today it is less than 10 million children dying 153 00:09:01,483 --> 00:09:03,793 If we continue as we do today 154 00:09:03,979 --> 00:09:05,477 It will continue to decrease 155 00:09:05,601 --> 00:09:07,599 But too slow, I think, 156 00:09:07,785 --> 00:09:10,967 and many who are like me have been able to study this 157 00:09:11,054 --> 00:09:14,588 We are eager that we move faster 158 00:09:14,773 --> 00:09:19,206 Because what can be done with what we have in our hands today is this 159 00:09:19,331 --> 00:09:24,884 If we add bed nets to everyone that needs it 160 00:09:25,071 --> 00:09:26,942 we will save 1 million children 161 00:09:27,131 --> 00:09:29,876 If we add new vaccines 162 00:09:30,064 --> 00:09:35,430 which now exists for protection of children against pneumonia, infection in the lung 163 00:09:35,453 --> 00:09:37,425 we will save 2 million children 164 00:09:37,612 --> 00:09:41,296 If we provide services for pregnant women and new-born children 165 00:09:41,419 --> 00:09:42,979 we will save another 2 million 166 00:09:43,104 --> 00:09:47,721 We can save 5 million children every year within 10 years 167 00:09:47,846 --> 00:09:51,154 That is achieving MDG goal 168 00:09:51,340 --> 00:09:58,580 It is within our power to replace funerals for children with happy children!